National capital has mostly observed dry weather conditions over the last 10 days or so. There were a few fleeting and patchy showers in some parts of NCR but most pockets remained dry during this period. The base observatory has recorded just 0.4mm of rainfall in the last 10 days. Airport observatory measured 2mm of rainfall yesterday. The record station has observed 71.4mm rainfall so far, the major share of this in the first few days of the month. August happens to be the rainiest month for the national capital with an average rainfall of 226.8mm.
The monsoon trough, which remains in close proximity of Delhi under normal conditions, was located far to the north and close to the foothills for the last many days. While this situation resulted in few incidents of cloud bursts in the state of Himachal Pradesh and Uttrakhand, Delhi observed sultry weather conditions on most occasions. The northward shift of the monsoon trough is not suitable for the spread of monsoon activity in the capital city.
A low pressure area is likely to form over the Bay of Bengal shortly. While it drags the eastern end of the monsoon trough southward, the western end will oscillate north-south. Further movement of this system inland will trigger an easterly stream along the Indo-Gangetic plains. Though, it is a weak monsoon system and therefore not likely to travel deep over the northern parts, but change in the wind pattern may set off cloudy conditions for Delhi with chances of light rain during the upcoming weekend.
Under the influence of low-pressure area, there is likely a partial revival of monsoon over the eastern and some central parts. Delhi will remain on the fringes of main weather activity. Still, the swing in the monsoon trough can usher in a few showers over and around the capital city. Light patchy showers are likely between the 19th and 22nd Aug. The closest position of the trough on 21st Aug may trigger a few moderate showers as well over some parts of NCR. These showers may not suffice to cool it down effectively. Maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to hover in mid-30s and mid-20s respectively, both above normal by about 2°C for the next week.
