The arrival of the monsoon, a lifeline for millions of farmers across India, is showing signs of delay in some parts of the country. While the eastern arm of the monsoon has made significant progress, reaching Sikkim and covering the northeastern states well before time, the western arm is facing hurdles.
Gujarat, which typically starts receiving monsoon rains in the southern districts by June 15th, has seen a hesitant start this year. Though the monsoon briefly touched the southern tip of the state, its further advancement seems sluggish. We expect no significant progress in monsoon activity over Gujarat for the next week. While scattered light rain might occur in the southern districts, the typical monsoon downpour is likely to be absent.
This delay mirrors the situation in Madhya Pradesh, another crucial agricultural state. Here too, the monsoon's arrival is behind schedule. Normally, southern Madhya Pradesh starts receiving monsoon rains by June 15th, with coverage reaching over half the state by June 20th. However, the monsoon is currently in a dormant phase, leading to anxious waits for farmers.
In contrast, the eastern arm of the monsoon surged on May 31st, reaching Sikkim and blanketing the northeastern states. However, its progress seems to have stalled since then. We anticipate no significant movement in the eastern parts of the country for at least the next 2-3 days. Relief might come around June 19th when the monsoon is expected to start progressing towards Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha. By June 21st or 22nd, it is anticipated to cover most of Chhattisgarh, parts of eastern Madhya Pradesh, and some areas of eastern Uttar Pradesh
This uneven progress of the monsoon paints a picture where most of East and parts of Central India might witness a timely arrival of the rains. However, the western arm, particularly over Gujarat, is facing a double whammy. Firstly, the overall pan-India monsoon deficit stands at 12% as of June 14th. This rain deficiency is predicted to increase further in the next two days before stabilizing. Secondly, the sluggish movement of the monsoon front poses a challenge for Gujarat, which depends heavily on these seasonal rains for agriculture.
The delayed monsoon arrival can lead to several concerns, including delayed sowing of crops, potential water scarcity later in the season, and an impact on agricultural incomes. As we move forward, it's crucial to monitor weather updates closely and hope that the monsoon picks up pace, bringing much-needed relief to the waiting farmers.
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