November 2022 remained warmer than normal. In fact, day temperatures were significantly above normal during November 2022. However, minimum temperatures remained below normal. The intensity and frequency of Western disturbances remained low during November. Western Himalayas kept waiting for heavy snowfall but it was not to be seen. In the absence of Western disturbances, winter rain also eluded northern plains.
Dry weather and bright sunshine during the day is responsible for above normal maximums. We do not foresee any significant Western disturbance until December 8. A moderate intensity Western disturbance is expected to approach Western Himalayas between on December 9 and 10 but its impact will be negligible over northern plains.
Therefore, there may be moderate-intensity snowfall over Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad, parts of Ladakh Jammu Kashmir and upper reaches of Himachal Pradesh. But Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, and western districts of Uttar Pradesh and North Rajasthan will remain dry and sunny. Northwesterly winds will not have sufficient winter chill to bring down the day and night temperatures of Northwest India. Therefore, we think that Northwest India including Delhi will have to wait until third week of December for winter to intensify.