Land-locked sub-divisions of Vidarbha, Marathwada and Madhya Maharashtra have perpetually remained rain deficit this monsoon season. Vidarbha has received some decent showers in the past 24hr but the other two still await a good burst of monsoon. While Vidarbha is likely to have scattered moderate rains during the next 3 days, rainfall may remain very light over the other 2 sub-divisions.
Vidarbha was rain deficit with a shortfall of 46% as of 06th July, larger than Marathwada and Madhya Maharashtra. Courtesy of good showers overs on consecutive days, the deficiency has been reduced to 31%, appreciable recovery of 15%. The other two sub-divisions also received good rains between the 06th and 08th of July, resulting in partial recovery. Marathwada, as of now is the most deficit pocket with a shortage of 39% rainfall.
There is a cyclonic circulation over Northwest Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Uttar Pradesh. Monsoon trough passing through this feature in the lower levels is creating convergence of winds over Madhya Pradesh and neighbouring Vidarbha. Moderate rainfall is expected for the next 3 days. Only light and isolated weather activity is likely over the other 2 sub-divisions. Rains will nearly vacate all the 3 sub-divisions simultaneously between 16th and 18th July.
A fresh monsoon system is likely to form over the Bay of Bengal. The cyclonic circulation over North Bay will be forming on 16thJuly. Consolidation over the same region with minor oscillation is expected for 3 days. This may turn into a low-pressure area which will move inland, tentatively on 20th July. It is rather early to comment on its intensity, spread and track. However, revival of monsoon for all three land locked sub-divisions is anticipated anytime after 20th July.
