Northeast monsoon will become active over Southern Peninsula during this week. The rainfall belt will travel from east to west across Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Tamil Nadu towards Kerala & Lakshadweep during this period. Rainfall spread may increase to reach further northward for couple of days. Telangana, North Karnataka and Maharashtra may also receive decent showers. Even, state of Gujarat may witness unseasonal rains between 25th and 27thNovember.
A north-south elongated trough in easterlies is currently marked over southwest Bay of Bengal, off the coast of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. This feature will travel westward, albeit slowly, moving across Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka, Kerala & Mahe, between 20th and 25thNovember 2023.
Outside Kerala, rest of the 4 sub divisions of Northeast Monsoon have shortfall of seasonal rains. The sub divisions of Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema have been literally trounced with huge deficit of 78% and 75% rainfall respectively. South Interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu have a recoverable shortfall of 24% and 16% respectively. This is despite the fact that last 2 weeks of November, 02Nov-08 Nov and 09Nov-15Nov, witnessed decent showers. Overall, South Peninsula continue to be deficit by about 39% rainfall between 01Oct and 19th November.
This week will have decent shifting rains over South India. Rainfall will remain confined to mostly South Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu on the 20th and 21st of November. Later, the spread will increase, covering Karnataka and Kerala, as well. This may help reduce the deficit marginally. However, the rains are going to lessen, once again, next week.
