The break monsoon conditions have reduced the rain activity over the entire Northwest and most parts of Central India. The Eastern part of Rajasthan recorded heavy to very heavy rain during the last week of July and these rains continued until the first week of August. However, most parts of West and Northwest Rajasthan remained almost dry. Similarly, Saurashtra and Kutch remained highly rain deficient.
Between June 1 and August 13, Saurashtra and Kutch are deficient by 49% wherein the Gujarat region is deficient by 46% and West Rajasthan is deficient by 12%. On the account of heavy downpour in the last week of July, east Rajasthan is surplus by 17%.
A low-pressure area will develop over West Central Bay of Bengal by August 17 and will move in a westerly direction. Rain may commence over eastern parts of the Rajasthan and Gujarat region by August 17 and 18. During this time, Kota, Bundi, Bhilwara, Jhalawar, Chittorgarh, Udaipur, Tonk in Rajasthan and Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Panchmahal, Surat, Valsad, Bhavnagar, and Amreli in Gujarat may start receiving scattered rain.
There are chances of scattered rain over western parts of Rajasthan as well as Saurashtra and Kutch between August 21 and 23rd. Although most of the standing crops are damaged due to lack of rainfall over the Saurashtra and Kutch and western districts of Rajasthan. But these upcoming rains may revive the dying crop to some extent.
The low-pressure area will move across central parts of the country and will pull down the axis of the monsoon trough from the foothills of the Himalayas. Therefore, rain activities are expected to revive over the remaining parts of Rajasthan as well.
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