Weather activity for the last few days has largely been confined to north India and to the mountains. Upper parts of northeastern states like Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Nagaland also witnessed scattered rainfall. South and central parts mostly remained silent. Peninsular India had no signs of any pre-monsoon activity. Conditions are favourably developing for pre-monsoon activity over the central and eastern parts. Even southern parts will come in for convective activity by the end of next week.
Heat is building up over the interior parts of Peninsular India and the central parts. While the Rayalaseema region becomes the hottest with mercury exceeding the 40°C mark, most of the central and eastern parts are staying in the high 30's. The heat factor is supporting the commencement of pre-monsoon and only needs a trigger. This is likely in the coming days, wherein, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand and West Bengal are favourites for the unseasonal thunderstorm, accompanied by hailstorms.
Heat bubbles over the central parts are activating the seasonal north-south Peninsular India trough and through its central region. A cyclonic circulation is coming up over Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and adjoining parts of Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat. On the eastern front, the Bay of Bengal anticyclone is getting ideally placed over its western parts and coastal areas of Odisha and North Andhra Pradesh. This feature will be pumping moist air over the interiors of the central region. A zone of converging winds is likely to form, triggering thunderstorm activity.
To start with, East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and South Chhattisgarh over the central parts and Odisha, Jharkhand and West Bengal on the eastern side will become favourites for mild and scattered activity from 16th March onwards. There will be some gaps in between and the spread could be limited. The intensity and coverage will increase over the subsequent 5 days, till 20th March. Thunderstorms and hailstorms could be more intense between 18th and 20th March. Pockets of Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and West Bengal will be more vulnerable to intense stormy activity, mostly occurring during late afternoon and evening hours.
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