State of Madhya Pradesh has mostly witnessed dry weather conditions this winter season. Earlier, some parts recorded light rains around mid-December and remained completely dry, thereafter. Spell of light rains is likely over the state during next week between 25th and 28th Jan.
Eastern parts of the state observe very little weather activity during December and January, as this region is placed far from the reach of western disturbance. The western parts do run the risk of having winter rains in few exclusive situations. Simultaneous occurrence over east and west is not very common.
A western disturbance is arriving over northern parts on 23rd Jan. An induced cyclonic circulation is likely over Rajasthan between 23rd and 26th Jan and later shifting eastward. Seasonal anticyclone is getting pushed from Rajasthan to states of Chhattisgarh and Odisha till 24th Jan and later over West Bengal and North Bay of Bengal. Also, the trough from the induced circulation extending southward will get connect with another system moving across South Peninsula.
Under the combined influence of these weather systems, unseasonal rains are likely over parts of Madhya Pradesh in a staggered manner. Rainfall belt will run across Bundelkhand region, covering Gwalior, Guna, Shivpuri, Datia and Tikamgarh, on 25th and 26th Jan. State capital may also get light sprinkle during this period. Rains will extend further over East Madhya Pradesh covering Sagar, Satna, Rewa, Umaria, Khajuraho and Jabalpur on 27th and 28th Jan. Rains will start vacating West MP on 28th Jan and cease completely on 29th over the entire state.