Central and eastern parts of the country have witnessed unseasonal rain in the month of January and February. These unseasonal rains were accompanied with hailstorms in parts. This is why most of the meteorological divisions of Central and East India are in the large rain excess category.
Isolated to scattered rain activities are expected over parts of east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar and Jharkhand as well as over Southeast Uttar Pradesh during the next week. We do not expect heavy downpours or hailstorm activities, damage to crops is ruled out.
A Cyclonic Circulation is expected to develop over Madhya Pradesh on the 15th of February which may give light scattered rain over east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and parts of east Uttar Pradesh on February 15. As the trough will shift to the east, light rain may occur over southern parts of Bihar and adjoining Jharkhand on February 16.
Another spell of light rain is possible between February 18 and 20 over these areas. This time, the rain activities will occur due to the formation of a confluence zone. Dry and cold winds from the North will interact with southeasterly humid winds over Central and East India leading to these rain activities.
Rainfall in winters over Central and East India usually occur due to the formation of a confluence zone or movement of a cyclonic circulation from west to east. During the next week, these two types of weather systems may form leading to scattered rain.