Prolonged spell of rain and thundershowers is coming up for the arid state of Rajasthan. Almost all parts of the state will witness change in weather conditions commencing tomorrow and spilling over to the next week as well. In addition to the lightening, thunderstorm and strong winds, few places may observe unpleasant and unsolicited hailstorm activity.
Gujarat and Rajasthan experience least weather activity in the month of March. Winter systems start retracting by February end and pre monsoon picks up more noticeably in April and May. March is taken as soft transition period from cool to the warmth of desert and typical heat builds up after the Vernal Equinox. Rains remain far and few and are equi distributed over West and East Rajasthan with a meagre figure of 4mm each, during the month.
Pre Monsoon showers are expected to arrive earlier than normal, lashing most parts of the state between 16th and 21st March. Weather activity will mostly be mild on 16th and 17th March. Spread and intensity is likely to heighten on 19th and 20th March. These are the days when chances of hailstorm at some places over northern and eastern parts of the state become higher. Thunderstorm activity will weaken on 22nd and 23rd March.
An active western disturbance is arriving anytime soon over the Western Himalayas. The induced cyclonic circulation will travel across the border to reach central parts of the state. These two features will act in tandem to increase the scale of weather activity. Additionally, an upper air trough is getting conveniently placed and juxtaposed with the dual system, to increase the chance of hailstorm in some areas.
State of Rajasthan has observed above normal temperatures from mid February onward. Mercury remained in high 30's persistently over West Rajasthan ( Jaisalmer, Barmer, Phalodi, Jodhpur, Bikaner) and above normal by 4-5 degree over east and north Rajasthan for long durations during this period. The state had earlier observed light spell of rain during the 1st week of March. However, the relief from heat was inadequate. Now, the expected wet spell will lower the day temperatures significantly over most parts. Mercury may even plunge below 30 degree at many places. Persistent showers may even dip the minimum temperature as well at some places.
Weather conditions are likely to improve after 21st March. However, the break may just be short and sweet. The state may come in for yet another spell from 24th Mar and later.
