Southwest monsoon made a delayed onset over Kerala. Monsoon arrived on 08thJune with a delay of one week, the longest in the last 4 years. Monsoon landing as such was mild and meek, struggling to fulfill the stipulated objective conditions. Mandatory condition of OLR dropping below 200wm~2 is yet to be seen over the desired area. Courtesy, cyclone Biparjoy, the monsoon stream has advanced rapidly along the West Coast. However, it is struggling to cross over to the interior parts of Peninsula, across the Western Ghats. The season has so far accumulated a deficiency of over 55% between 01st and 12thJune 2023.
Cyclone Biparjoy in the Arabian Sea delayed the arrival of monsoon first and sapped the monsoon stream from reaching interiors of Peninsula forcefully. By 15thJune, the monsoon rains cover complete Maharashtra, Odisha and half of Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Bihar. Streamline flow is still grappling to settle down over these parts. Considerable delay is likely to catch up with the desired intensity and spread of rainfall. At present, visible manifestation of monsoon surge is limited to the Northeast India and West Coast. Weather systems in the Bay of Bengal are considered the main drivers of monsoon. There is no likelihood of any such system emerging over Bay of Bengal anytime soon. Monsoon depressions and storms, if any, over the Arabian Sea spoil the monsoon more than accentuating it over the hinterland.
Cyclone in the Arabian Sea, after making landfall on 15thJune may bring scattered unseasonal rains over Rajasthan, Delhi, Uttrakhand and West Uttar Pradesh later in the 3rd week of June. However, these will not be the typical monsoon rains. More so, these untimely rains may not even benefit the agriculture operations. Monsoon rains are essentially required, the most, over the core monsoon zone of Maharashtra, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh. Northwest India can still wait for 2-3 weeks for commencement of normal seasonal rains.
Skymet Extended Range Prediction System (ERPS) is projecting a dismal outlook for the next 4 weeks, between 09thJune and 06thJuly. Agriculture heartland is looking rather cracked and parched. This coincides with the crucial time of sowing or at least preparing the field, with the hope of impending decent rains. Inadequate rains over the central and western parts, the core monsoon zone will find it difficult to absorb the drying effects, rather early in the season. It is likely to leave the poor farmer in a state of indecisiveness choosing between the type of crop and the crop cycle.