The plains of North India are yet to make transition to the typical wintry flavor, this season so far. The early morning temperatures continue to be above normal, across the board. Even, the mountains seem to be warmer than normal and destinations like Gulmarg have barely touched the lowest of 5°C in this month. Srinagar has recorded the lowest of 6.5°C so far, against the mercury level of 3.2°C, measured during last year. Invariably, the plains of Punjab and Haryana slip to under 15°C, during the last week of October. Last year, places like Amritsar, Pathankot, Jalandhar, Ludhiana, Hisar, Karnal and Delhi had also dipped to below 15°C, between 24th and 27th October. These places remain fairly warm and hover around 18°-20°C, so far.
Amritsar, Firozpur and Jalandhar are mostly the coldest places in Punjab and all three have minimum temperatures of above 19°C, today morning. Amritsar, Jalandhar and Chandigarh have measured the lowest temperature, well above normal, by 4°-5°C. The national capital recorded its lowest temperature of 17.4°C, so far, on 15th October 2024. Now, the minimum temperature has been above 20°C, for the last 5 consecutive days. These temperatures in the plains are unlikely to change during the remaining days of October. Notwithstanding, the minor variations of 1°-2°C can not be ruled out, and that too, because of local factors.
The winter chill normally sets in, following snowfall in the higher reaches and dry and cold northwesterly sweeping down the slopes of these hills. Though there were two early rounds of snowfall before mid-October, but the revisit of the similar spell is still awaited. Strong and dry winds are blowing across the region but the nip in the air and wintry pinch is still missing. There is a western disturbance likely around the 28th and 29th of October, but it may be too mild to make any significant impact over the plains. The other reason which is restricting the changeover, is a continuation of northeast monsoon activity, extending up to the eastern and central parts of the country. There are weather systems, on either side of the coastline, controlling the wind pattern. There is a cyclonic storm coming up over the Bay of Bengal and broad cyclonic circulation over the East-Central Arabian Sea, off the Karnataka-Goa coast. These systems may appear to be located at far-off distances, but still good enough to impede any significant changes in the temperature profile, over western and northern plains.
To feel the typical winter chill, the wait may get a little longer. The Indian seas need to be cleared of any major disturbances. Also, the northern mountains need to be clad with sheets of snow, albeit in the mid and higher reaches. Lower hills, get their turn, mostly during the second half of December and sometimes, even later. The classic feel of morning nip in the air and night chill for the national capital and most places in the plains are likely to roll over to November.
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