Mumbai is unlikely to have any decent monsoon activity in the next about one week. The weak spell may continue, even thereafter. The main triggers for the typical Mumbai rains are missing and unlikely to come up, anytime soon. Earlier, the city had clocked the rainiest July on record with a monthly total of 1703.7mm, only second to the highest ever of 1768mm in July last year. In contrast, August is heading for one of the driest on record, unless some deluge comes in the latter half of the month.
The main trigger for monsoon rains is the off-shore trough, extending from South Coastal Gujarat to Kerala. The feature is completely inactive, right now. There are hardly any hopes of a revival. Formation and inland movement of the monsoon lows and depression is another source of heavy rains for Mumbai. There are no signs of any fresh development, at least in the next one week. Also, the seasonal monsoon trough, which sometimes strays far to the south to build up a surge for Mumbai, is at a safe distance and running nearly in its normal position. It is unlikely to have any major swing. There are no streaming strong westerly winds striking the Konkan Coast, from the Arabian Sea. The Arabian Sea current is rather mild and also inclined to the coastline and therefore, unfavourable for any uptick in the monsoon activity.
The financial capital, Mumbai has recorded 189mm of rainfall so far in August. The normal rainfall for the month stands at 585.2mm. The city has observed only single-digit rainfall on a daily basis, for the last one week. Typical Mumbai rainfall in this month was registered only once in this month. Just short of the three-digit record, 24 hours of rainfall of 97mm was registered on 04th Aug 2024 and literally silent, thereafter. The early revival of the monsoon looks tough for the city. Light and irregular rainfall will continue, at least for the next 10 days or so. Fresh developments, if any, will be kept under observation for likely resumption of monsoon activity.
Image Courtesy: Free Press Journal