Mumbai is unlikely to witness typical heavy rains over the next one week or ten days. Mostly light and occasionally short and brief moderate spells of showers are expected during this period. Normal monthly rainfall for August is 585.8mm, much lower than the rainiest month of July. July 2024 was the all-time second-highest rainfall month with a total of 1703.7mm against the normal of 840.7mm. August so far, has received 173mm of rainfall and is unlikely to replicate July.
Konkan Coast in general and Mumbai in particular receives heavy rainfall under specified meteorological conditions. Any monsoon system, low pressure or depression, coming up over the Bay of Bengal intensifies the monsoon stream from the Arabian Sea, along the Western Ghats. No such system is likely over the next 10 days. Any cyclonic circulation over West Madhya Pradesh, North Madhya Maharashtra and Gujarat also strengthens monsoon surge along the Konkan Coast. Such a scenario is unlikely during the first half of August. The most significant and semi-permanent feature remains the offshore trough from South Gujarat to Kerala. This feature will stay dormant during the next 10 days or so. Under such a situation, Mumbai is unlikely to witness heavy downpours till 3rdweek of August.
The monsoon trough will remain far away, literally running across the northern plains. The eastern end will keep proximity to the foothills. Very little oscillation of trough is anticipated. Such conditions will not favour an uptick in weather activity along the Konkan Coast. The westerly flow from the Arabian Sea will remain linear and unperturbed. The orographic effect of Ghats may induce small scale local level eddies in a few days. One or two spells of moderate showers are quite likely, but not amounting to any disruptions, between 10th and 12th August. To break the monotony, a fresh monsoon system is very essential over the Bay of Bengal. There is no such indication till the 3rd week of August. A typical monsoon outburst for the city of Mumbai is not likely till 20th Aug 2024.
Image Credit: Times of India