West Pacific Ocean and South China Sea become active basins for cyclone activity during El Nino years. There are no official bounds for the storms but the active season lasts between May and October. Two tropical storms, Amang and Sanvu, have already formed during April 2023. Peak season lies from September to October. A powerful storm has now formed over the West Pacific Ocean.
As predicted earlier, Typhoon Mawar has evolved over the open waters of the Pacific Ocean. The storm is centred around 9.1 Degree North and 147.7 Degree East, about 200km North-Northeast of Satawal, a part of the Carolina Islands in the Pacific Ocean. The is moving North-Northwest with a speed of 15 kmh towards the Mariana Islands. A strong and powerful storm, Mawar is packed with a wind speed of over 150 kmh and growing further. The typhoon is sailing over the open waters and therefore, no dry air entrainment and no negative effects. Rather warm sea surface temperatures and light wind shear are favourable for rapid strengthening to Cat-2 equivalent hurricane soon. Typhoon Mawar is expected to capture winds to the tune of 185 kmh before reaching the Islands of Guam and Rota. After clearing the Rota channel, the typhoon will move West-Northwest and intensify further.
The typhoon is having sharp features with a circular cloud mass. The cloud-dense overcast (CDO) is likely to develop the eye of a storm shortly, supporting the intensification of the cyclone. Plenty of deep ocean heat content will take the storm very close to a super typhoon before reaching the Philippines. Cat-5 equivalent super typhoons have wind speeds >/= 252 kmh. Haiyan was the strongest typhoon to hit this area with the topmost speed of 315kmh. Haiyan sailed as a super typhoon over the Pacific between 03rd and 11th Nov 2013.
Typhoon Mawar is expected to reach the outskirts of the Philippines by 27-28 May 2023. After moving across the northern parts of the Philippines, the typhoon may enter the South China Sea. Such strong storms impact the wind pattern over hundreds and thousands of kilometres. The strong pull of winds of these storms invariably depletes moisture over India. Monsoon in India largely depends on low-level moisture transport from the Indian Ocean towards the Indian landmass. The sapping of moisture, in turn, weakens the monsoon stream. The timing of Typhoon Mawar over the Philippines and the South China Sea is nearly coinciding with the normal dates of the southwest monsoon reaching the mainland. Super typhoons are known to delay or weaken the onset conditions over the Indian subcontinent.
