The maiden month of the Southwest Monsoon, June, has remained rain deficit on most of the days. So far, only four days have recorded above normal rainfall.
On June 17, the countrywide rain deficiency had even mounted to 25%. However, Monsoon picked up pace thereafter, reducing the deficiency significantly to 17% on June 23.
As we enter into the last week of June, we expect Monsoon rains to enhance further across the country on account of two fresh Monsoon systems seen brewing in Indian Seas of Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. Presently, both the systems are seen as cyclonic circulations in mid-levels.
This rainy spell may also spill over to the first few days of July as well.
With the fresh Monsoon surge, the decreasing trend of rainfall deficiency will continue and may even drop to single digit by the end of June itself.
Not only this, both the systems will also be responsible for further advancement of the Southwest Monsoon into leftover parts of the country. Normally, Monsoon surge covers entire country by July 15 but this year, we expect Monsoon to be quicker than its usual pace.
Cyclonic circulation in Bay of Bengal
The system is marked over Southwest Bay of Bengal off the coast of South Andhra Pradesh and North Tamil Nadu. Weather models are indicating that it is likely to get more organised, shifting northwards and percolate into the lower levels.
By June 26, we expect system to move into west-central Bay of Bengal off the Odisha coast. Thereafter it is likely to move inland in west direction between June 27 and June 28.
The cyclonic circulation will once again activate the off-shore trough running along the West Coast, enhancing the rains considerably over Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, and Konkan & Goa including Mumbai from June 26.
Besides this, the system will also pull down the east-west trough running along the Indo Gangetic Plains till Northeast India when it gets more organised by June 27. Hence, rain activity will reduce significantly over northeastern states.
However, the circulation will be responsible for pushing the moisture laden easterly winds right up to the northern plains, increasing rains over Punjab, Haryana and Delhi-NCR. This spell will also mark the onset of Southwest Monsoon over the plains of North India.
Cyclonic circulation in Arabian Sea
The system is presently marked in Arabian Sea off the Karnataka coast and is shifting gradually towards the Gujarat coast. But unlike the other system, this circulation seems to stay put in mid-levels only.
And since it is not percolating in lower levels, we expect the circulation to give limited Monsoon activity only. However, it will be still pounding good rains over the West Coast.
Formation of shear zone
With both the systems moving in the close proximity, it will lead to formation of a shear zone. As a result, Monsoon activity will increase substantially over parts of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha along with parts of interiors of Peninsular India.
Rains will also increase over Gujarat and are also likely to extend up to parts of Rajasthan.
Image credit: www.hindu.com
Any information taken from here should be attributed to skymetweather.com
