South peninsula is the most active and weather sensitive pocket during the Northeast Monsoon season. During this season, it is very common to see series of cyclonic disturbances moving from east to west across Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea.
Now a situation has built up for the formation of weather systems on either side of the coastline in the next 48 hours. The first system is the Arabian Sea is going to be a remnant of the Cyclone Gaja and another one in Bay of Bengal.
Arabian Sea – The severe cyclonic storm Gaja moved across Tamil Nadu and weakened into a depression over Kerala and adjoining parts of Tamil Nadu. It is likely to intensify further into a Cyclonic Storm during next 12 hours and very likely to move west-northwest wards across Lakshadweep Island during the next 24 hours.
Thus, is association with this system heavy rains with few very heavy spells are likely to lash Kerala and Lakshadweep region during next 24 hours. Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph are likely over Southeast Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep Area during next 48 hours, along with Kerala coast during next 24 hours.
Bay of Bengal – At present a cyclonic circulation is brewing over extreme Southeast Bay of Bengal. However, this system will be moving over South-central Bay of Bengal. Subsequently, on November 18, we expect a low-pressure area to form in Southwest Bay of Bengal. With its westwards movement, this system is likely to come close to Tamil Nadu coast.
In wake of this system, another rainy spell is expected for the entire state of Tamil Nadu especially the capital city Chennai. Between November 20 and 22, we expect widespread rainfall activity to commence over Tamil Nadu. The northern parts are expected to receive more rains as compared to the southern half. Thereafter, from November 22, this system will start weakening and move westwards.
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