A cyclonic circulation was over Gulf of Thailand. It has now moved over South Andaman Sea and extends up to mid-tropospheric levels tilting Southwest wards with height. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to develop over Southeast Bay of Bengal by November 14. It is likely to move in West Northwest direction and intensify into a depression over Central and adjoining South Bay of Bengal around November 16.
Another cyclonic circulation is over Southwest Bay of Bengal and extends up to 1.5 Km above mean sea level. Both the weather systems are expected to intensify further. The depression may further intensify into a deep depression and is expected to move along the east coast of the country towards Gangetic west Bengal and South Bangladesh.
Rain activities will be moderate to heavy over Andaman and Nicobar Islands on November 13. Coastal areas of Tamil Nadu, and South coast of Andhra Pradesh will also receive intense rainfall on November 13 and 14. Rain will cover Odisha coast, North Andhra Pradesh cost, and parts of West Bengal on November 15 and 16. We do not expect the formation of a cyclone. Rain may be moderate to heavy over Gangetic West Bengal, and Southern parts of Bangladesh on November 17.
The cyclonic circulation over Southwest Bay of Bengal will also move along Tamil Nadu coast and may intensify into a well-marked low.