Post withdrawal of the southwest monsoon, the West Pacific, South China Sea and Indian Seas have become active basins for tropical storms. While a tropical cyclone is likely to come up over the South China Sea in the next 24 hours, Indian Seas will witness the formation of low-pressure area on either side of the coastline. A low-pressure area over the east-central Arabian Sea is likely to come up in the next 24-36 hours, with a sizeable potential of rapid intensification to a tropical storm. Another low pressure area is expected over east-central Bay of Bengal (BoB) during the same period.
A cyclonic circulation is marked over the southeast Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep region. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form shortly. It is expected to intensify rapidly into a depression/ deep depression over the east-central Arabian Sea by 20th October. Favourable oceanic and environmental conditions support further strengthening to a cyclonic storm over west-central Arabian Sea by 22/23rd October. Numerical models are showing divergent tracks and timelines, as of now.
The majority of models suggest northwestward movement, directing it towards the Yemen-Oman coast. However, the recurvature of the storm from the central Arabian Sea, as projected by GFS models and its ancillary, can not be ruled out. In such a scenario, the cyclone will have a chance to barrel towards the Gujarat coast. Once the weather system intensifies to a tropical storm, the position of the subtropical ridge will be the deciding factor for its future course. This weather system will need close observation for the next 72 hours. More clarity is expected about the track and timelines of the cyclone after it displays the visible configuration and broad outlines of a tropical storm. One thing is for sure, that the Arabian Sea will host the first storm of post monsoon season 2023.
South-Central BoB seems to be rather turbulent on account of the transition from southwest monsoon to northeast monsoon. A couple of cyclonic circulations are embedded In the flow, currently marked over southwest and east-central BoB. These cyclonic bubbles are likely to merge and a broad circulation is expected to come up over east central BoB in the next 36 hours. A low-pressure area is likely to appear over the same region during this period. This may further strengthen to shape upto a depression/deep depression by the 20th/21st of October. Any predictions beyond these timelines will be premature estimates. However, the sea & environmental conditions, coupled with climatology make it prudent, not to discard the possibility of yet another storm over the Bay of Bengal.