Remnant of cyclone Mandous was last seen as cyclonic circulation over coastal parts of Kerala and Karnataka. This feature has moved westward and under its influence, low pressure area has formed over Southeast and adjoining East-Central Arabian Sea. It is supported by a circulation extending up to medium levels of atmosphere. It is likely to move further westward and become well marked low over the open sea in the next 24hr.
Another cyclonic circulation has entered over South Andaman Sea from Strait of Malacca and Malay Peninsula. It is expected to move westward over Southeast Bay of Bengal (BoB ) in the next 24hr. Under its influence, a low pressure area is likely to form over Southeast BoB and adjoining equatorial region on 14th Dec.
Low pressure area over the Arabian Sea will continue to move away from Indian coastline over the next 3days and weaken thereafter, over deep sea in the central parts of Arabian Sea. Entire coastline of Somalia, Horn of Africa, Yemen and Oman will remain safe from inclement weather conditions. However, entire West Coast covering Konkan & Goa, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala are likely to have scattered rain and thundershowers over the next 2 days. Spill over of the weather activity will also be witnessed over South Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. Weather conditions will improve on 15th Dec and remain mostly dry on 16th & 17th Dec.
In the meantime, low pressure area over Southeast BoB will reach Southcentral BoB and adjoining equatorial region on 15th Dec. Continuing moving westward, cyclonic circulation of this weather system will make it to Southwest BoB and equatorial region on 16th Dec and get located off Sri Lanka coast on 17th Dec. It is likely to get superimposed by easterly wave and activate northeast monsoon over southern parts.
Under the influence of this system, all 5 sub divisions of northeast monsoon namely, Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala will experience wet spell between 18th and 23rd Dec. Heavy rainfall is likely over Tamil Nadu at few places, including Chennai and Puducherry, on 18th and 19th Dec. Rest of the days, scattered moderate rain and thundershowers are likely over all the 5 sub divisions and Coastal Karnataka.
