The winter season is unique in many ways. The month of November went almost dry in the absence of Western disturbances. December saw a few Western Disturbances but only two of them were intense and resulted in good snowfall.
On the other hand, the month of January witnessed significantly high frequency of Western disturbances. Overall, seven Western Disturbances approached the Western Himalayas, out of which three were strong.
February commenced with a very strong Western disturbance which has given heavy to very heavy snowfall over Western Himalayas. Its impact was visible across Indo Gangetic plains from Punjab to West Bengal in terms of rainfall.
Another western disturbance, although feeble in nature will approach Western Himalayas on February 13. Light rain and snow is possible until February 15. Two more back to back systems are expected between February 16 and 20. There are chances of scattered light to moderate rain and snow over Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad, Ladakh, Jammu Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand between February 16 and 20.
These Western disturbances will not be strong enough to have a significant impact over Northern Plains. However there may be fluctuations in minimum due to the approach and passage of these weather systems. Minimums may increase marginally during the approach and fall after the passage of these weather systems.