The state of Kerala is the third largest contributor to rains during the Southwest Monsoon season in India. Coastal Karnataka and Konkan being on the first and second position, respectively.
The normal onset date for Southwest Monsoon over Kerala is June 1, but this year Monsoon is expected to make an early arrival. However, the time of onset has no direct link with the amount of rain which can be understood clearly by the table below:
The table clearly indicates that out of the last five years, Monsoon made an early or timely onset on two occasions, while it was delayed by 5 or more days thrice.
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It also chalks out that in 2017, when Southwest Monsoon made an early arrival, the state was 9% rainfall deficient. Meanwhile, when Southwest Monsoon was delayed in 2014, the state experienced a 6% excess rains. Similarly, in the year 2013, Monsoon made a timely arrival and gave 26% excess rains to the state.
Until now, May which is the peak pre-Monsoon month, has been satisfactory for the state. Rains of varied intensity were being observed by most parts of the state with very less number of dry days.
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However, at present, a well-marked low-pressure area in Southwest Arabian Sea is tracking westward and getting more marked at the same time. With the system getting more marked, most of the moisture is now concentrating over this system. As a result, rains have reduced over Kerala.
For the last three days, rains over the state are not uniform and are mainly in patches. This system would possibly strengthen into a depression in the next 24-36 hours and thus, rains would continue to be on the lighter note.
This is clear in the images below that showcases rainfall over Kerala in the last three days:
In the last 24 hours, from 08:30 am on Sunday, Alappuzha recorded hefty rains of 78 mm, Thiruvananthapuram 13 mm, Periyakulam 7 mm, Kochi 0.4 and Karipur recorded some traces of rains.
However, this would not be cause of concern for quite a long time. As per weathermen, Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) continue to be active and likely to churn out another system in the next four to five days that would possibly revive the rains over the state. Furthermore, this would be instrumental in the onset of Southwest Monsoon which is expected around May 28.
These would probably be the last pre-Monsoon spells over the state as Southwest Monsoon is expected to mark an early onset over Kerala by May 28.
Image Credit: Instagram (Vyazdev)
Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com
