Hurricane season is approaching and there are good possibilities that this year’s Hurricane season will be very active. Almost all agencies are predicting that the season is going to be quite busy in terms of the hurricane.
On an average six hurricane and 13 named storms are common in season. But average prediction states that this year is we can expect 8 hurricanes and 17 named storms in Atlantic.
For Hurricane forecasting, a number of factors are considered. One is sea surface temperatures (SST).
Sea surface temperatures across most of the Atlantic are running above normal from the past few months.
Sea surface temperatures are playing an important role in generating and intensifying hurricanes. The warmer the ocean, the more fuel available for the storms to tap into.
At present, the Atlantic’s sea surface temperature is consistent with the active Atlantic hurricane season. However, the exception is for North Atlantic, it is cooler than normal.
Another factor is El Nino. El Nino inhibits Atlantic hurricane activity due to increased vertical wind shear (VWS). VWS changes wind speed and direction with a height that constrains hurricanes from developing. Neutral conditions or La Nina conditions are a more favorable environment for the development of the tropical storms.
At present neutral conditions are prevailing, and there is a 60% chance of neutral conditions throughout the summers. Although sea surface temperatures are marginally above normal. But La Nina conditions are expected to develop by late July.
Climatologically, about 30% of all Atlantic hurricanes make landfall. Therefore, the United States must brace up for hurricane season. Almost all coastal residents should be paying close attention and have their hurricane plan ready for the upcoming season.
