The ongoing Western disturbance is moving away eastwards. After the passage of the Western disturbance, wind direction will change from southwesterly to northwesterly. Day and night temperatures have already dropped over parts of Punjab, west Haryana, and western parts of Rajasthan during the last 24 hours. Now, temperatures may drop over most parts of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh and the entire Rajasthan including western parts of Madhya Pradesh during the next two to three days.
Minimums are in double digit over most of these states. We expect minimum over parts of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Northwest Uttar Pradesh as well as parts of Rajasthan may once again come under single digit. But this drop will not last for long, and temperatures will once again start increasing after February 14. Temperature fall will not be very steep therefore we do not expect cold wave to make a comeback over any part of northwest India.
A fresh Western disturbance although feeble in intensity will approach Western Himalayas from February 14. And winds will change the direction once again leading to increase in maximum and minimums. Now we can say the winters are almost over from Northwest India. As per long range forecast, temperature during February and March may remain slightly above normal over most parts of northwest and Central India.