The absence of Western Disturbance (WD) is the reason for rise in temperatures in North India. WD is a low pressure emerging in the Mediterranean Sea and adjoining Atlantic Ocean. The season of storms in South India keep these Western Disturbances in check during November. There are only four to five WDs that appear over the Western Himalayan Region during November but what is unusual is that they have not been strong this year.
After witnessing one of the them (WD) in the second week of November that led to a long period of below normal night temperatures in northwest, Indo-Gangetic plains and central India, there has not been any strong WD ever since. The weather system gave good amounts of snow and rain in the hills of North India to keep the temperatures below the average. Cool Winds originating from these hills were the reason behind drop in temperatures.
But now both day and night temperatures are above normal as there has not been any strong Western Disturbance that could make the winds cool and dry. In the absence of a WD, the skies in North India have been mainly clear leading to rise in day temperatures in the last two to three days.
According to our forecast, the remaining days of November and early December in North India are not expected to witness any change in the weather conditions as there is no Western Disturbance in sight for the next week or so.