Total of 5 meteorological sub divisions of South India are considered for Northeast Monsoon, between October and December. Courtesy, Pan India surplus rains of 47% in October, all the subdivisions in South India ended with normal or above normal rainfall, except Coastal Karnataka. Delayed exit of Southwest Monsoon and continuation of weather systems during the month, left South Peninsula with an overall excess of 12% rainfall.
Northeast monsoon made a delayed onset on 29th October 2022. Except on few occasions, the activity remained below par. Only Tamil Nadu and Kerala retained normal rainfall after the arrival of monsoon and the rest of the region has witnessed significant shortfall. Surplus rainfall of October has slowly depleted and got consumed for South Interior Karnataka (SIK), Coastal Andhra Pradesh (CAP) and Rayalaseema.
Courtesy, a low pressure area over southwest BoB, off Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka coast, spike in the weather activity is likely between 11th and 14th November. Once again, mostly Tamil Nadu and Kerala will be the chief beneficiaries and a part share will be extended to South Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema. South Interior Karnataka will largely escape the intensity and spread of rainfall.
November is the chief rainy month of the season, more so for the state of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. Any big shortfall finds it difficult to catch up later in the season. Models indicate possibility of yet another low pressure coming up over Southeast BoB and Andaman Sea, around 15th Nov. If so, this will take about 4 days to reach the coast and enhance weather activity.