July and August are the core Monsoon months which account to more than 70% of the rainfall received in the season. Any large deficiency in either month reflects on the health of Monsoon. If any of the month performs well, Monsoon ends on a good note as well. If either month fails to perform good, there is a risk of Drought.
Looking back into the history, we see that normally the two months compliment each other. This time is an exception and both the months have performed well. While July ended on a surplus note of 105%, August ended on a bountiful note of 115%.
The last time, India saw a positive figure for Monsoon performance or as we call it a positive departure, was six years back in 2012. Last biggest surplus was seen in 2007 which was 23% surplus. Thus, the country is observing a big surplus rain after a total of 12 years.
Strikingly in 2019 the state of Gujarat which is mostly prone to poor rains has outperformed this Monsoon. While Saurashtra and Kutch turned out to be 118% surplus, Gujarat region was surplus by 75%.
Other pockets which did well this Monsoon are Madhya Maharashtra which received 98% more rains, South Interior Karnataka 102% and Kerala a whopping 123%.
Whereas rains have a pattern of leaving some pockets deficient even in the best of the month. This time the brunt was bore by Northeast India which ended with almost 50% deficiency for the month. Also, Bihar received 51% less than normal rains. While Punjab saw a 0% departure from normal, adjoining Haryana on the other hand turned 46% deficient. Marathwada in Maharashtra also remained 28% rain deficient.
The well performing August has definitely affected by the overall Monsoon performance as well. While Monsoon has begun on a rather weak note with June ending on a deficient note, July too ran into a deficiency of 9%, whereas halfway through August the rain deficiency was covered already. The last ten days in August witnessed subdued rains and the Monsoon ended on 0% departure.
Image Credits – The Financial Express
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