The intensity and frequency of Western disturbance in the month of November and December 2022 remained low over Western Himalayas. The month of January commenced with an intense Western disturbance which has dumped heavy snowfall across Western Himalayas.
Three active western disturbances approached hilly states of Western Himalayas during January 2023. The induced cyclonic circulation in the wake of Western disturbance has given world spread rainfall over Northwest and Central India along with hailstorm over many parts of Rajasthan during fag end of December.
We are in the month of February. Now we think that intensity of Western disturbances will start reducing. The ongoing Western disturbance failed to give any significant weather activity over the hills. Another Western disturbance may approach hills around night of February 5th and continue until 6th. There are chances of a moderate Western disturbance to impact hills of Western Himalayas between February 9 and 11.
Intensity of these upcoming Western disturbances will not be very strong. Therefore, we do not expect heavy to very heavy snowfall over the hills at least during first half of February. The lack of intense Western disturbance will have significant impact over northern plains. There will not be any winter rain over Indo Gangetic plains for next 8 to 10 days. And temperatures will increase gradually.