Around four intense Western disturbances approached Western Himalayas in the month of January. They have dumped heavy snowfall over the Hills. We are now in the mid of February but only one moderate-intensity Western disturbance has impacted hills of Western Himalayas. Although it has given good rain and snow over Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad, Ladakh, Jammu Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh but Hills of Uttarakhand did not receive any significant snowfall.
Weather will go almost dry for next 48 hours and another Western disturbance which will be comparatively weak will reach Jammu Kashmir. And may give light snowfall over The Hills between February 14th and 15. Until then cool winds from Northwest direction will continue over Northwestern Central part of the country leading to drop in day and night temperatures.
We do not expect any impact of this Western disturbance in terms of rainfall over northern plains. Minimum temperature however may increase marginally after February 14th due to approaching Western disturbance.
Another fresh Western disturbance will reach Western Himalayas from night of February 16. This Western disturbance will be of moderate intensity and maybe capable of giving moderate snowfall across Western Himalayas between February 17 and 19.