Decent pre-monsoon showers are likely over most parts of Kerala in the remaining days of May. Weather activity has remained subdued this pre-monsoon season and the state escaped the fury of heavy weather activity so far, more so during the 2nd half of May. Irrespective of the date of arrival of the monsoon, rainfall over the state from 01st June onward will be counted against the seasonal rainfall.
Pre Monsoon thundershowers are generally hefty all along the coastline of the state and penetrate deep inland as well. However, the pre-monsoon rains did not pick up this season and mostly remained below average. The starting month of March was satisfactory with a shortfall of just 9% during the month. This gap widened later and the month of April remained deficient by 28%. The month of May is rather disappointing as the state recorded rainfall of 111.9mm between 01st and 25th May, against the monthly normal of 219.2mm. The shortfall is quite large.
Notwithstanding, the remaining days look promising and may achieve normal rainfall on a daily basis, albeit not a strong one. The state has a total deficit of 25% rainfall between 01st March and 25th May 2023. Last year in May, the state received very heavy rainfall of 426.2mm against the normal of 219.5mm, a huge surplus of 95%.
Seasonal Peninsular India trough is extending from North Karnataka to South Kerala below the friction level. The proximity and oscillating nature of the trough are likely to escalate pre-monsoon showers over the state for the next 5-6 days. Scattered intermittent showers have been reported during the past 24 hours. Intensity and spread will increase.
Thundershowers over many parts of the state are likely to be accompanied by strong winds. Exercise caution for lightning strikes, more so for the mountainous terrain of the state.