Yet another cyclone, the fourth one of this year for the Bay of Bengal, will make a knock early next week. November is proving itself to be the peak activity month for the storms, across Indian Seas. Favourable sea conditions and a supportive environment getting aligned with the climatology and dynamic forcing are pointing towards a strong possibility of tropical storms over the southeast Bay of Bengal.
There are early signs of cyclonic circulation emerging over the Gulf of Thailand, anytime soon. A convective cloud cluster in that area has manifested this feature, with indications of further flaring over the next 24 hours. This circulation, when organized, is likely to move across the Malay Peninsula in the proximity of the Strait of Malacca. Further, this weather system will enter the South Andaman Sea and equatorial parts of the extreme southeast Bay of Bengal on 25th November. Favourable conditions will consolidate the system further to a low pressure first and quickly to a depression by 26th/27th November. In all probabilities, it may evolve into a significant tropical storm by 28th/29th November 2023.
Cent Percent model consensus is still not achieved on the formation and accentuation of sea-born disturbance. Therefore, precision forecast about the track and intensity of the storm will have to wait, at least till it emerges over the Andaman Sea. At the cost of reiteration, geographical location, climatology and atmospheric conditions are boosting the chances of potential storms over the Bay of Bengal. Even statistically, the weather disturbance entering Andaman Sea from the far east regions, at this time of the year is more promising for cyclogenesis.
Storms originating over the South Andaman Sea are obsessed with a long sea travel. Accordingly, the chances of growing severity and the size, become synonymous. These are termed potentially dangerous storms. Also, the recurving track of such storm subject the entire coastline from Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal and Bangladesh at risk of being soft targets. This likely storm will be named ‘Michaung’ and pronounced as ‘ Migjaum’ as proposed by Myanmar. The count of storms will go on further, with early signs of another one trailing the same route.
