The low-pressure area over the southeast Arabian Sea and the adjoining region has further consolidated. During the process of reorganization, it is now centred around 10°N and 64°E, over 1000 km away from the coast, west abeam Cochin. It is likely to become well-marked and move west-northwest over the southwest and adjoining west-central Arabian Sea. There is a fair chance for further intensification to a depression first, on 21st October and quickly turning into a cyclonic storm in the subsequent 24-36 hours.
Sea surface temperature and wind field are favourable for the deepening of the weather system. However, the surface temperatures are lowering by almost 2°C over extreme western parts of the Arabian Sea in the proximity of the coastline of Yemen and Oman. Possibly, the heat potential may drop during the final leg of the storm, which seems to be heading for Yemen, very close to Salalah. The cyclonic storm which will be named ‘Tej’ is expected to strike the coast, tentatively on 23rd October 2023.
Still, there is no model consensus on the track, intensity and timelines of Tej. Yes, there are concrete assertions for the development of the first storm of post-monsoon 2023 over the Arabian Sea. Earlier, in the pre-monsoon season, an extremely severe cyclonic storm ‘Biparjoy’ struck the Gujarat coast on 16th June 2023. GFS model supports the recurvature of Tej while positioned over the far-west Arabian Sea. Though little pre-mature to predict the track, it may move northeastward, dangerously close, along the coastline of Yemen and Oman. In such an eventuality, the storm may enter the open waters of the northwest Arabian Sea again, and later head for the Indus Delta region of Pakistan.
Cyclonic storms are known for dubious characteristics and notorious enough to defy the track, timelines and intensity. Post-monsoon storms over the western half of the Arabian Sea always keep the Pakistan and Gujarat coastline on tenterhooks. The recurving storms need to be kept under close observation for any adverse impact.