The deep depression over the Southwest Bay of Bengal, off the Sri Lankan coast, is centred around 9°N and 82°E. The depression is about 400km southeast of Puducherry and moving slowly north-northwest towards the Tamil Nadu coast. Apparently, the system is skirting the Sri Lankan coast and is likely to pass east abeam Jaffna by tonight, keeping a safe distance of over 100km. The northeastern coast covering Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Mullaittivu, Vavunia, Jaffna and Point Pedro still remain at risk of heavy weather activity for the next 24 hours.
The cloud configuration of the system, as depicted in the satellite imagery, is not quite organized. There has hardly been any consolidation in the past 24 hours and the cloud bands seem to be a little fragmented. The weather system is placed in a marginal environment for any further development. Yes, the sea surface temperature is quite warm (28°-29°C), but reducing near the coastline of Tamil Nadu. The upper-level divergence is moderate and the vertical wind shear is strong, both, not favouring the deepening of the system. The weather system is struggling to gain speed and strength. However, the mix of environmental conditions still favours borderline intensification to cyclones of mild intensity, albeit briefly between tonight and tomorrow morning. Thereafter, the storm may soften, before the landfall expected on Saturday morning, 30th Nov 2024.
Once the system comes close to the coast of North Tamil Nadu, many locations like Nagapattinam, Karaikal, Cuddalore, Puducherry, Tambaram and Chennai will have the risk of inclement weather conditions. The weather activity will pick up significantly from tomorrow evening for these places. The intensity and spread will increase, right from the early night and go through till 30th Nov evening. Incessant rains and strong winds may hamper rail, road and air operations. The interiors of North Tamil Nadu need to exercise caution and prepare for adverse weather conditions after the system crosses the coast. Scattered rain and thundershowers will continue over the South Peninsula for another two days, till 02nd December. Broad clearance is expected on and after 04th Dec 2024.