Southwest Monsoon withdrew from the entire country on October 19, in the third week of October. It has been observed that the withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon since last 4 years is taking place around the same time (third week) of the month instead of the second week. For instance, the withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from the entire country in 2012 happened on October 18, while in 2013 it was October 31 and in 2014 it withdrew on October 18. Whether it will follow the same pattern next year as well need to be seen.
The 2015 Southwest Monsoon season had made a fantastic start as the countrywide rainfall by the end of June was surplus by 16%. But thereafter, the El-Nino effect took over and subdued rainfall activity was observed across the country in July and August.
Central India was one pocket where occasional good showers continued throughout the poor Monsoon period of July and August. The remaining parts of the country including Peninsular India observed meagre amounts of rain.
The season therefore ended with a countrywide rainfall deficiency of 14%, which is considered mild drought.
Despite poor rains over the country, the geographical distribution of rainfall is not as bad as it looks from the above figures. For instance, the Indo Gangetic Plains where rainfall amount was deficient did not feel the pinch as it is a belt that has good irrigation facilities.
Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and parts of Rajasthan where irrigation facilities are minimal received good rains.
The area of concern was North Interior Karnataka, Marathwada and Madhy Maharashtra where the crops had suffered losses. But by the later part of September these areas also observed good showers which continued till the first week of October.
Therefore, we can say that despite drought, crop output will not suffer to the extent anticipated earlier.
