Southwest Monsoon has finally exited from the capital city of Mumbai with a delay of over one week. Actually, the monsoon has completed its withdrawal from the country and made way for the onset of the Northeast Monsoon. Rains have continued over the city and light to moderate showers are expected till the 22nd of October and become dry, thereafter. These showers over the next one week are on account of an extended range of winter monsoons over the South Peninsula.
Down south, active monsoon conditions have been prevailing under the influence of multiple factors. A depression is marked over the Southwest Bay of Bengal and will move west-northwest towards the Tamil Nadu coast. The cyclonic circulation, earlier marked in the proximity of the Tamil Nadu coast has been subsumed in this depression. Another weather system as a cyclonic circulation is placed over Coastal Karnataka, Goa and adjoining Arabian Sea. An east-west shear zone joining these two systems is cutting across South Karnataka, Rayalaseema, North Tamil Nadu and further on to the Bay of Bengal reaching up to the North Andaman Sea. The tail end of the shear line over the Andaman Sea may potentially generate, another monsoon system, shortly, over that area.
Konkan Coast and Mumbai lie on the northern periphery of this shear zone. While the weather system over Goa-Coastal Karnataka will shift westward over the deep ocean, the other one after crossing Tamil Nadu will position over the interiors of the South Peninsula. The northeast monsoon will remain active over the southernmost states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala. In addition, the states of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Goa and Konkan Coast will also have rain and thundershowers. There will not be any extreme weather activity as such, but the spread of rains will persist for nearly one week, albeit light to moderate in nature.
After these weather systems, on either side of the coastline, expend their energy, the weather activity will recede from Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Goa and Konkan regions. The anticyclone over the Rajasthan region will start pumping northeasterly winds, all across South Gujarat and Konkan. Weather activity over Mumbai will cease at the start of next week, more effectively from 23rd October onwards.
