Southwest Monsoon To Resume Advancement and Cover Many Parts In Next One Week

Southwest Monsoon arrived 3 days before schedule over mainland Kerala. Thereafter, the pace was sluggish and performance also under par. Monsoon  rainfall deficiency in the early days rose to 43% in the 1^st phase between 01^st-11^thJune. Recovery started 15^thJune onward and break even zero-zero was achieved by 22^ndJune. However, weak monsoon conditions again increased the deficit to 10%. Shortfall may go up further by 1-2% before resuming normal for the last 2 days of the month.

Monsoon had taken 3 long pauses at regular intervals. The 1^st halt was short of Goa, from 31^stMay to 09^thJune. The eastern arm of monsoon covered entire northeast India in one go on 03^rdJune. Thereafter, it was a long pause between 03^rd and 12^thJune. Even after resumption, the current moved at a snail’s pace to cover most of Bihar  and a break again.

Northern limit of monsoon (NLM) is stuck at Churk (Uttar Pradesh) from 17^thJune onward till now. Arabian sea branch also made a dead stop earlier from 16^th to 26^thJune near Porbandar. Following good rains over Saurashtra and North Gujarat on 27^th June, it has now covered most of Gujarat, leaving just a trail.

Southwest monsoon will now enter in the 3^rd and final phase. Both, Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal branch, will move in tandem to reach most parts of the country in the next 10days.  Many parts of Uttar Pradesh will have rains, today and tomorrow, thereby shifting the NLM, covering most parts of Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand in the next 48 hours. During this period, monsoon will also reach on the outskirts of Delhi and East Rajasthan. These pockets are likely to get covered in the subsequent 24hr. Conditions will be favorable for the monsoon current to sweep entire Gujarat, more parts of Rajasthan and few parts of Haryana and Himachal Pradesh, simultaneously.

As per the normal dates, southwest monsoon reaches the last posts of West Rajasthan by 08^thJuly.  Looks like the stream is right on track to meet the deadline. Last year, the onset phase got completed on 13^thJuly 2021.  Advancement of monsoon over any area may not be construed as continuous spell of clouds and rains. Intermittent wet and dry spells are inbuilt features of monsoon. Establishment of monsoon trough, extending from Ganganagar to Kolkata, across Indo Gangetic plains, will be the chief monsoon driver for the north, east and northeastern parts of the country from 1^st week of July onward.