Southwest Monsoon made its entry over extreme southern parts of the Andaman Sea and Chain of Bay Islands on 19th May 2023, a little before time. Monsoon current remained sluggish and slow to stay put over the same region for the next 10 days, till 29th May. Incremental shift thereafter has moved the northern limit (NLM) to cover nearly the entire chain of Bay Islands but shied away from breaching Sri Lanka coast. Conditions are becoming favourable to inch forward simultaneously, both the eastern and western ends of the monsoon arm.
Cross-equatorial flow has strengthened between the equator and about 7°N on both sides of the Indian Ocean, Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. Above these latitudes, there is a likelihood 0f some vortices coming up on either side of the coastline in the deep oceans. Currently, cloud clusters are more prominent over the equatorial belt of the West Indian Ocean and relatively mild on the eastern side.
Under the influence of these perturbations and the speeding up of equatorial flow, the southwest monsoon is expected to move forward. It is likely to cover Hanimadu (Maldives), South Comorin, Colombo (Sri Lanka), more parts of Central and Northeast Bay of Bengal and run up to Myanmar (Coco Islands). Accordingly, the NLM will advance further in the next about 48 hours.
Monsoon current will have to wait on the outskirts of mainland Kerala. Activation of the monsoon vortices coming up over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal will become instrumental to mark the onset. This annual event has already overshot the stipulated time. The further delay seems imminent. Also, the Monsoon march over Peninsular India may be soft and quiet during the opening days.
