Southwest monsoon continue to loiter over Comorin region and Sri Lanka. It is literally struggling to advance into mainland India. Fresh developments over the Arabian Sea are further inhibiting its pace and intensity. However, the basic parameters needed for the onset have started getting aligned. The annual event is likely to commence this week, albeit making a soft landing to start with.
Southwest monsoon had earlier arrived over extreme southern parts of Bay of Bengal (BoB) on 19thMay, little before the normal date. However, it made a dead stop for over 10days, got delayed over Andaman & Nicobar Islands. Thereafter, the cascading effect is taking toll and the monsoon stream is yet to make a forceful entry over mainland India.
Monsoon low pressure area is likely to form over Southeast Arabian Sea sometime tomorrow. It is expected to intensify in to a depression over the same region subsequently and may strengthen further around mid week. These powerful weather systems in the Arabian Sea spoil the advancement of monsoon deep inland. Under their influence, monsoon stream may reach coastal parts but will struggle to penetrate beyond the Western Ghats.
Skymet had earlier predicted the monsoon onset on 7th June with an error margin of 3 days. The southwest monsoon is likely to arrive within this bracket. Onset criteria require stipulated rainfall on 2 consecutive days over Lakshadweep, Kerala and Coastal Karnataka. Accordingly, the spread and intensity of rainfall may match these requirements on 08th& 09thJune.
However, the onset of annual event may not be loud and sound. It may only make meek and mild entry to start with.