After keeping everyone on the fringes for days, onset of Monsoon over Kerala is just around the corner. We expect the Monsoon onset to take place in Kerala in the next 24 to 48 hours. The normal Monsoon onset date, however, is June 1.
Delayed onset of Monsoon has not been the only concern for Kerala and the country but pre-Monsoon season didn’t fare too well for the state either. Rain in Kerala remained deficient by 70% during the month of May.
However, in the last 24 hours, the intensity of rain has increased in the state. Fairly widespread rain and thundershower activity were observed in Kerala. These increased rains are adding on to the factors favourable for the onset of Southwest Monsoon. One of the criteria for Monsoon onset is rainfall of 2.5 mm or more in each of the 14 stations in South India for two consecutive days. At least 60% of the stations should meet this criterion.
Most of these 14 stations like Thiruvananthapuram, Punalur, Kollam, Alapuzha, Kottayam, Kochi, Thrissur, Kozhikode, Kannur and Thalassery fall in Kerala.
The other two factors are in favour of the Monsoon arrival. The East-West Shear Zone has developed roughly along latitude 7° N. It will gradually shift northwards. The Cross-Equatorial flow has also increased. Therefore, we expected rains to now increase in intensity over Kerala during the next two to three days. Temperatures will fall by two to three degree Celsius. Sky will be cloudy to overcast, and the weather will become comfortable. The rain deficiency will also go down significantly in the next 2 to 3 days.
This widespread rain in Kerala will soon mark the onset of Southwest Monsoon in the next 48 hours.
Image Credits – The Hindu Business Line
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