Southwest Monsoon has made an onset over Kerala today i.e. May 29th, which is 3 days in advance from its usual date. Skymet had predicted the onset of Monsoon on May 26 with an error margin of 4 days.
Although, according to IMD monsoon has made an onset over Kerala well before time, all the weather parameters essential to declare the onset of monsoon are in place except one. Rainfall criteria is still missing, out of 14 stations marked by IMD, 60% of stations should receive 2.5 mm or more rain on consecutive 2 days. Today more than 60% of stations have recorded more than 2.5 mm rain but yesterday number of stations were less than 60%. We can say all the criteria essential to declare the onset of monsoon have not been met.
Nevertheless, the depth of westerlies up to 600 hpa and zonal wind speed 15-20 Kts are fulfilled.
Although Monsoon has set in well before time, but we do not expect active monsoon conditions to continue over Kerala, Tamil Nadu, South Karnataka, and the remaining parts of the South Peninsula for at least next one week.
The western arm of the monsoon has advanced before time, but the eastern arm is still lagging. All the rain activities may intensify over northeastern states from June 1. However, heavy to very heavy downpour will be missing over Northeast India as well.