After Skymet Weather, country's nodal weather agency, India Meteorological Department has come up with regional and month-wise forecast for Monsoon 2019. For the entire Monsoon from June through September, Skymet is below normal to the tune of 93% (with an error margin of +/-5%) of long period average (LPA) against normal Monsoon with 96% rains (with an error margin of +/-4%) of LPA.
Although there is disparity between the forecast for the four-month long season, but both the agencies have come at consensus over El Niño. Both have maintained that El Niño conditions would prevail during the Monsoon.
However, IMD is indicating towards neutral El Niño conditions in the latter half of the Monsoon but Skymet maintains its stand that even weak El Niño also has the potential to corrupt the Monsoon, which can equal to the impact that of moderate or strong El Niño.
In such situation, Central India is the region that remains at bigger risk. Looking at this, Skymet Weather has predicted 91% of rainfall for the season, contrary to which IMD has predicted 100% for the same.
Following is the comparison between the forecast given by Skymet Weather and IMD:
Monthwise forecast for Monsoon 2019:
Regionwise forecast for Monsoon 2019:
Image Credit: NDTV
Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com
