Southwest Monsoon 2017 made a timely onset over the country on May 30, thus marking the beginning of the four-month long season. So far, Monsoon has not disappointed us and remained normal at 102% as on July 31.
Now, as we enter into the second half of the Monsoon season, let us have a look at the performance of Monsoon during June and July.
Performance of Southwest Monsoon during June
The maiden month of June saw fairly widespread rains over most parts of India. Monsoon was excess over many parts of Southern Peninsula such as Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, North Interior Karnataka and Lakshadweep. But South Interior Karnataka and Andaman and Nicobar remained rain deficit.
However, surprisingly, highest gainer during June was Northwest India. Although Monsoon had not covered the region by that time but Monsoon systems down the country aided pre-Monsoon showers.
In fact, Northwest India saw some intense pre-Monsoon activities during the month. Places like Haryana, Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir and West Rajasthan were largely excess, while Himachal Pradesh and East Rajasthan were excess.
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But most of the eastern parts of the country remained deficient such as Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, East Uttar Pradesh and Arunachal Pradesh.
Thus, countrywide cumulative rain surplus for June ended with a surplus of 4%, with country recording 170.2 mm of rain against the normal average of 163.6 mm.
Performance of Southwest Monsoon during July
The rainy affair continued during July also and the month continued with good Monsoon rains. In fact, Monsoon remained vigorous during most of the month.
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By the end of July, two sub-divisions of West Rajasthan and Saurashtra and Kutch region of Gujarat were largely excess.
Second half of July saw massive flooding across Gujarat, South Rajasthan, parts of Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Assam. All thanks to the formation of low pressure areas over the central parts of the country.
The regions which remained deficit were Marathwada, Tamil Nadu, Interior Karnataka and West Uttar Pradesh.
With this, countrywide cumulative rain surplus for July ended with a surplus of 2%, with country recording 460.2 mm of rain against the normal average of 452.8 mm.
Monsoon Forecast for August
After giving good showers during July, August began on the weaken note, with rains reducing significantly across the country. According to Skymet Weather, Monsoon has gone subdued over most parts of the country due to the dissipation of the low pressure areas, particularly the one over Rajasthan and Gujarat.
Moreover, the axis of Monsoon trough has also oscillated towards north and at present, it is running along the foothills of Himalayas. Whenever, Monsoon trough shifts towards foothills of Himalayas, weather of southern region of the trough goes dry. These are also known as break Monsoon conditions.
However, the eastern end of Monsoon trough is expected to dip southwards, therefore we expect on and off rains over eastern parts of the country such as Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha and Chhattisgarh during the next few days.
“More or less Monsoon rains will remain below normal for the first half of August as we do not even foresee development of any fresh weather system in sometime soon,” said Mahesh Palawat, VP-Meteorology, Skymet Weather.
In wake of this, Monsoon which was surplus by 2% on July 31 will become deficit by 5%-6% by mid-August.
Image credit: Wikipedia.org
Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com
