We updated the foreshadow on 4th July wherein chances of drought had increased to 60%. Possibility of below normal rain was 30%, while chances of rain being normal became 10%. We had categorically stated that monsoon 2014 stand a bleak chance of above normal or excess rain. And the season has ended on almost same lines, with deficit being 12.3%.
Categorization of rainfall
Season rain less than 90% of the LPA (Long Period Average) amounts to drought
Below normal rain is 90-95% of the LPA
Normal rain is 96-104% of the LPA
Above normal rain 105-110% of the LPA
Excess is more than 110% of the LPA
Skymet Meteorology Division in India had forecast adverse monsoon conditions for Northwest India and Central India. And the region that include Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi-NCR, Uttar Pradesh and east Madhya Pradesh witnessed deficit rain this monsoon. The deviation being west Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat where rain has been normal, but in negative (± 19% is normal).
Skymet had put southern peninsula at least risk but the region has observed below normal rain by 7%. Telangana and Andhra Pradesh are the two regions that have received less rain, adding up to the deficit. We had also forecast August and September to be the best months in terms of rainfall for the country and it is exactly how the Southwest monsoon panned out during this period.
Meanwhile, all four divisions are deficit and Northwest India tops the list with rainfall deficit of 21%. East and Northeast India follow with deficit standing at 12%. Central India is deficit by 9%, while South India is 7% deficit. Amongst the 36 sub-divisions, south Interior Karnataka is the only one to observe excess rain.