The month of October didn’t receive enough rain over the hilly areas of Western Himalayas. The state of Uttarakhand remained the most rain deficient with a deficiency of 94% followed by Himachal Pradesh with a deficiency of 73%. Jammu and Kashmir performed much better with a deficiency of 43%, in the month.
October witnessed several Western Disturbances, but their intensity remained light. These systems could only give scattered rains over Jammu Kashmir. By the time they reached the states of Himachal and Uttarakhand, rainfall depleted, and Himachal received less rain in comparison to Jammu & Kashmir. In fact, Uttarakhand remained almost dry.
Now, an active Western Disturbance is affecting Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh. Therefore, we expect moderate rains with one or two heavy spells at many places. Scattered rains will occur over Himachal Pradesh. Uttarakhand will also get rains at a few places. Also, there are good chances of snowfall over Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh. These rain activities will continue until November 3.
Already snowfall has occurred at many places in Jammu & Kashmir along with light to moderate rainfall activities. In fact, Jammu-Srinagar National Highway had to be closed. Higher reaches of Himachal along with Manali has also received fresh snowfall during the last 24 hours. Temperatures have dipped significantly leading to wind chill in many parts of J&K and Himachal Pradesh.
The Western Disturbance persisting over Jammu and Kashmir and another fresh Western Disturbance over North Pakistan will bring fairly widespread rain and snowfall activities over Jammu and Kashmir and parts of Himachal Pradesh in the next 24 hours. Now, we expect snowfall to increase over Gulmarg, Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir and Manali, Rohtang in Himachal Pradesh.
There are chances for the Jammu-Srinagar National highway to remain blocked for some duration as some parts may receive snowfall activities during next 24 hours. However, since intensity of snowfall will not be very heavy, therefore the traffic disruption will be minor in the days to come.
Popular hilly destinations such as Pahalgam, Srinagar, Shimla, Dharamshala and Chamba may get good rains in the next 24 hours. Snowfall is possible in Rohtang Pass and upper reaches of these places. Although, chances of rain are less over Mussoorie, Nainital, Dehradun and Haridwar but isolated light rain cannot be ruled out here as well. Katra and Vaishno Devi may also receive few spells of rain and thundershowers.
Rain activities will reduce by November 3, therefore people can head towards these destinations this weekend.
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