So far in this winter season, rains have remained far and few for Northwest India. In fact, the last rainy spell that the region saw was on December 11-12. Since then the region has remained practically dry, leading to warmer days.
Hills of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand have not seen any major spell of snowfall during the thick of the season. Meanwhile, plains have been dry due to which occurrence of frost has increased that may lead to crop damage.
Delhi-NCR has not recorded rains for straight 39 days, which is the longest dry spell in last five years. The absence of rains had pushed the day maximum to 27.7C on Thursday, which was the second highest maximum temperature recorded in last decade in the month of January.
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Not only this, famous winter fog has also been missing as weather conditions were not conducive.
However, now winters rains are now all set to make a comeback next week. The weather model is indicating towards a Western Disturbance that is most likely to start affecting Jammu and Kashmir by January 22, with an induced low over north Rajasthan and adjoining areas.
As per weathermen, whenever there are two systems together, they progress in tandem and then the situation is quite favorable for a good rainy spell.
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Although the Western Disturbance is likely to move in higher altitudes, it would be the induced low that would be more active this time.
Plains of Punjab, Haryana, North Rajasthan, Delhi and West Uttar Pradesh would too see winter rains of varying intensity.
As the systems would move eastward, rain belt would also move accordingly. Rains would begin with the parts of North Rajasthan by the late night of January 22. As the systems move, rains would gradually cover Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and west Uttar Pradesh on January 23. These rains would continue for at least 24 hours.
Thereafter, the system would move towards Nepal and split further over the foothills of East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, resulting in rains over these regions as well by January 25.
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