The northern limit of monsoon (NLM) has reached the tip of South Coastal Gujarat and passes through Navsari. The eastern arm remains stagnant since 30th May, the early days of onset over Northeast India. Monsoon activity is likely to weaken over the next few days. Both, the eastern and western arm will have a ‘Slow March’ during this period. This will accentuate the heat conditions further, over the northern parts of the country.
As per the normal dates, the southwest monsoon enters South Gujarat around 15th June, reaches Ahmedabad on 20th June, sweeps Saurashtra and the outskirts of Rajkot-Jamnagar by 25th June and finally completes the journey by reaching the last bastion of Kutch on 30th June. Gujarat has the longest period, amongst other states for the monsoon to cover, from Valsad to Naliya.
The southwest monsoon advances over the state of Gujarat under the influence of systems, forming on either side of the coastline. Last year, cyclone ‘Biparjoy’ around this time of the month battered the state and took the monsoon deep into Gujarat. The monsoon lows/depressions forming over the Bay of Bengal and travelling across the central parts to reach over West Madhya Pradesh become favourable for advancement over the state. Strong monsoon currents from the Arabian Sea, under the influence of active western disturbance over northern plains and the heat low over Rajasthan, also become a reliable source for taking the monsoon over the interior parts of the state.
None of the above conditions are favouring the state at this juncture. Monsoon activity as such will weaken for the country, over the next few days. The coastal parts of the state will have the south-westerly winds from the Arabian Sea in the lower levels of the atmosphere, but there is no trigger likely to complement this feature. A layer of clouds with light rain at isolated places is possible during the next week. By itself, this may not suffice to draw the monsoon stream over the state. Consequently, decent monsoon advance may get a little delayed over most parts of the state.
Image Credit: bsmedia.business-standard.com
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