In terms of geographical risk, Skymet suggests that Tamil Nadu, Northeast India and South Interior Karnataka will be at moderate risk through June, July, August and September (JJAS). Good amounts of rainfall are expected in Central India and along the West coast. There may be excess rainfall in some pockets of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. Some pockets of Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh could experience less rainfall. Second half of the Monsoon will see better rainfall than the first half. Post-Monsoon, the spell of good rainfall activities will spill over to October.
According to Jatin Singh, CEO, Skymet, “The El Niño is tapering off and it will collapse after the onset of Monsoon. It is not likely to have an adverse impact on the Monsoon performance”. There are more chances of getting into La-Niña in the later part of this year. Under the influence of the cyclone Roanu, Monsoon arrived before time over the Andaman and has also advanced further. Conditions are now favorable for its timely onset over Kerala.
According to Skymet, Monsoon probabilities for JJAS are:
- 25% chance of excess (seasonal rainfall that is more than 110% of LPA)
- 37% chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110% of LPA)
- 30% chance of normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104% of LPA)
- 5% chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 90 to 95% of LPA)
- 3% chance of drought (seasonal rainfall that is less than 90% of LPA)
On a monthly scale, the precipitation foreshadow is as follows:
June – 87% of LPA (LPA = 164 mm)
- 50% chance of normal
- 20% chance of above normal
- 30% chance of below normal
July – 108% of LPA (LPA = 289 mm)
- 60% chance of normal
- 25% chance of above normal
- 15% chance of below normal
August – 113% of LPA (LPA = 261 mm)
- 60% chance of normal
- 30% chance of above normal
- 10% chance of below normal
September – 123% of LPA (LPA = 173 mm)
- 40% chance of normal
- 50% chance of above normal
- 10% chance of below normal
Impact on Agriculture
In the year 2016, the total area under kharif food grains is expected to increase by 15 to 20% over last year. Accordingly, the kharif food grains production is expected to be around 129 to 130 million tonnes.
In 2016, area under oilseeds including soybean, groundnut, pulses (tur, moong and urad) and rice may increase. Area under cotton may reduce marginally while total agricultural land under sugarcane may remain the same as previous year. Area under cotton may reduce marginally however its production is expected to be better.
To download Skymet Weather's Monsoon Foreshadow report, click here