Skymet Weather had released its forecast for Southwest Monsoon 2018 on April 4, 2018 predicting normal rains to the tune of 100% (with an error margin of +/- 5%) of long period average (LPA) of 887 mm from June to September.
As a sequel to pan-India forecast, Skymet has now come up with quantitative distribution of Monsoon rainfall across the four regions for the country on April 18.
While IMD has been urged to issue regional Monsoon forecast for Odisha, Skymet has already issued a regional forecast for Monsoon.
Let us have a look at the region-wise forecast that comes with an error margin of +/-8%.
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East and Northeast India
The region contributes maximum amount of share in the countrywide rainfall during Monsoon. It records 1438 mm of rain during the four-month long season that accounts for 38%. This year, as stated in the main forecast, geographical risk remains high for East and Northeast India, particularly for Northeast India. It is most likely to see slightly below normal rains of up to 95% of LPA, this season.
East India that comprises of Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and West Bengal may see better rainfall than Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
East and Northeast India – 95% of LPA (LPA for JJAS = 1438 mm)
• 5% chance of excess
• 10% chance of above normal
• 50% chance of normal
• 30% chance of below normal
• 5% chance of deficient
South Peninsula
Following the similar pattern, Peninsular India too remains at risk this season with expected rains at 97% of LPA. Few parts of the region are likely to see deficient rains this time. According to weathermen, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu may see some poor rainfall.
The region records 716 mm of rains that accounts for 19% of the total Monsoon rains.
South Peninsula – 97% of LPA (LPA for JJAS = 716 mm)
• 5% chance of excess
• 5% chance of above normal
• 65% chance of normal
• 20% chance of below normal
• 5% chance of deficient
Northwest India
As the active Monsoon duration is the least over the region, thus its contribution in rainfall is also the least of all. Northwestern states record 615 mm of rains that makes it 17% of the total rainfall recorded across the country during the Monsoon.
Nonetheless, the region is expected to most likely record normal rainfall to the tune of 99% of LPA. We expect the significant contribution would come from hilly states of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand as compared to plains of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Delhi-NCR.
Northwest India – 99% of LPA (LPA for JJAS = 615 mm)
• 5% chance of excess
• 20% chance of above normal
• 60% chance of normal
• 10% chance of below normal
• 5% chance of deficient
Central India
Central India records 976 mm of rain from June to September, contributing second highest share of 26%. Skymet forecasts that it would be the only region to record excess rainfall at 108% of LPA, this season. Particularly parts of North Maharashtra, Konkan, Chhattisgarh and parts of Madhya Pradesh would be main beneficiary.
Central India – 108% of LPA (LPA for JJAS = 976 mm)
• 15% chance of excess
• 15% chance of above normal
• 55% chance of normal
• 10% chance of below normal
• 5% chance of deficient
So over all we can say that this would be the best Monsoon in the last five years, bringing in some good news for Indian Agriculture and allied sectors.
To download Skymet Weather's Monsoon 2018 Forecast report- click here
To download Monsoon 2018 Forecast P.P.T- click here
Image Credit:en.wikipedia.org
Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com
