Skymet, India’s leading weather forecasting and agriculture risk solutions company has released its monsoon forecast for 2021. Skymet expects the upcoming monsoon to be ‘healthy normal’ to the tune of 103% (with an error margin of +/- 5%) of the long period average (LPA) of 880.6mm for the 4-month period from June to September. In its earlier preliminary forecast released on January 31, 2021, Skymet assessed the monsoon 2021 to be ‘normal’ with seasonal rainfall ending in the upper half of the normal range, the spread of normal rainfall being 96-104% of LPA.
In terms of Geographical risk, Skymet expects that plains of North India along with few parts of the Northeast region are likely to be at risk of being rain deficient through the season. Also, interior parts of Karnataka face the scare of scanty rains in the core monsoon months of July and August. The onset month of June and the withdrawal phase of September is assuring good countrywide rainfall distribution.
According to Yogesh Patil, CEO, Skymet, “La Nina conditions prevailing in the Pacific Ocean since last year presage softening and are expected to remain neutral through the monsoon season. ENSO continue to wield a spike mid-way through the season suggesting a fresh phase of cooling, albeit marginal, over the Central Pacific Ocean. Therefore, the occurrence of El Nino which normally corrupts the monsoon is ruled out”.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral and is oscillating lightly on either side of the zero line. This parameter seems to incline with a -ve shift but remaining within the threshold limits. In this case, it may not heave the monsoon spurts but will refrain from harming the season.
Meanwhile, another oceanic parameter Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently sailing far away from the Indian Ocean. It barely makes 3 or 4 visits during the season. It is too early to comment on its impact on monsoon.
According to Skymet, Monsoon probabilities for JJAS are:
• 10% chance of excess (seasonal rainfall that is more than 110% of LPA)
• 15% chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110% of LPA)
• 60% chance of normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104% of LPA)
• 15% chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 90 to 95% of LPA)
• 0% chance of drought (seasonal rainfall that is less than 90% of LPA)
On a monthly scale, the precipitation foreshadow is as follows:
June - 106% of LPA (LPA for June = 166.9 mm)
• 70% chance of normal
• 20% chance of above normal
• 10% chance of below normal
July - 97% of LPA (LPA for July = 285.3 mm)
• 75% chance of normal
• 10% chance of above normal
• 15% chance of below normal
August - 99% of LPA (LPA for August = 258.2 mm)
• 80% chance of normal
• 10% chance of above normal
• 10% chance of below normal
September - 116% of LPA (LPA for September = 170.2 mm)
• 30% chance of normal
• 60% chance of above normal
• 10% chance of below normal
About Skymet Weather
Skymet Weather is India's largest weather monitoring and agri-risk solutions company. The only private weather forecasting agency in India, Skymet Weather, was established in 2003 and has been known for providing reliable and accessible weather forecasts since then. Skymet runs its own numeric weather prediction models and provides an array of weather-based services through data and information tools. It uses innovation to provide weather forecast to power companies, media conglomerates, farmer innovation services, agricultural input producers and logistics operators. It has pioneered uses for long-range Monsoon weather forecasts, satellite remote sensing technologies and unmanned aerial vehicles in India.
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