Skymet, India’s leading weather forecasting and agriculture risk solutions company has come out with the ‘Preliminary Monsoon Forecast Guidance for 2019’. Skymet expects over 50 percent chances of the upcoming Monsoon to be ‘normal.’
Skymet has been successfully predicting Monsoon since 2012 and is prepared and committed to release its report about prospects of Monsoon 2019 too. However, it is a bit early to share the complete details as data is still being collected and information is getting collated. Skymet issues its detailed Monsoon forecast between March 15 and April 15 every year and will stick to the on time release of Monsoon forecast this year as well.
Nonetheless, there are precursors to gauge the health of the Monsoon. El Niño has been impacting Monsoon rains more often than normal in the recent past. This time too, El Niño is in the news in the context of Indian Monsoon.
El Niño had been on rise till December, thereby showing consistent drop. Going by the early indications, this is going to be a devolving El Niño year. This trend would surely not lead to a drought but the bountiful rains, as said excess rainfall are also ruled out. This could be one of the normal Monsoon years but making a slow start. Initial readings are indicative of some risks attached to some pockets.
According to Jatin Singh, Managing Director, Skymet Weather, “The El Niño conditions were on the rise in the Pacific Ocean till December last. The temperatures are now declining, and the probability of El Niño is also falling. This will reduce to about 50% by the time Monsoon arrives with a gradual decline thereafter as well. This means it is going to be devolving El Niño year.”
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Please Note: Any information picked from here must be attributed to skymetweather.com
